The document presents a review of the challenges that arise
when forecasting techniques are applied to predict the evolution of sustainable
user innovation. It also provides an augmented list of variables that may be
used in the process of envisioning the future of lifestyles in Europe.
Forecasting any kind of individual and social behaviour requires assembling several
elements from different disciplines: from mere technical methodological
challenges (choice of model) to substantial theoretical discussions (prediction
of outcomes); from data gathering strategies (combination of sources and their
reliability) to measurement (Choice of variables used to represent the relevant
ideas); from establishing the rules of micro-behaviour of individuals to usingwell established models for individual interactions.
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